Turkey's April 16 referendum will move the country's system of governance in a more autocratic direction, with negative implications for EU relations and long-term growth. The close and contested nature of the result will keep political and societal tensions high, with the 2019 general elections already coming into focus.
The resumption of the diplomatic process since early 2017 and the dramatic shift in the balance of power in the last months of 2016 will support a positive political momentum towards achieving a peace, although it will be a multi-year process. Meanwhile, the fight against Islamic State, especially the offensive on Raqqa, will continue to be delayed by uncertainty over the US's strategy and...
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