Macroeconomic Forecasts - Macroeconomic Forecasts (Lebanon 2014-2020) - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Lebanon 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 5.60 5.85 6.01 6.08 6.09 6.07 6.02
Nominal GDP, USDbn 47.8 49.4 50.3 51.4 53.8 56.4 59.4
GDP per capita, USD 8,523 8,450 8,374 8,457 8,833 9,304 9,866
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 1.7 -3.7 -0.8 4.5 3.0 3.5 3.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -0.7 -3.4 3.1 5.0 3.0 3.5 3.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.50 11.00 11.00
Exchange rate LBP/USD, ave 1,509.87 1,507.83 1,512.18 1,511.18 1,521.40 1,540.00 1,555.00
Exchange rate LBP/USD, eop 1,512.00 1,508.10 1,514.00 1,512.79 1,530.00 1,550.00 1,560.00
Budget balance, LBPbn -4,632.3 -5,958.2 -7,453.4 -7,221.5 -7,763.1 -7,951.0 -8,125.7
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.4 -8.0 -9.8 -9.3 -9.5 -9.1 -8.8
Goods and services exports, USDbn 19.3 19.8 18.8 19.8 21.1 22.5 23.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 32.7 30.7 30.8 32.5 34.7 36.6 38.6
Current account balance, USDbn -11.7 -8.1 -9.9 -10.3 -10.9 -11.0 -11.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -24.4 -16.4 -19.6 -20.1 -20.3 -19.5 -18.5
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 32.4 30.6 34.0 35.7 37.2 38.6 40.2
Import cover, months 11.9 12.0 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5
Total external debt stock, USDbn 29.9 30.9 32.0 34.5 37.4 40.5 43.8
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 62.7 62.5 63.5 67.1 69.5 71.7 73.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -148.8 -147.3 -147.7 -150.6 -154.7 -159.4 -164.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0