Macroeconomic Forecasts - Qatar - FEB 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Qatar 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 2.25 2.37 2.48 2.57 2.64 2.69 2.74
Nominal GDP, USDbn 198.7 206.2 164.6 152.4 176.8 196.7 214.4
GDP per capita, USD 88,282 86,821 66,326 59,306 66,987 73,000 78,140
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.4 4.0 3.6 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 3.1 3.4 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.7 2.2 2.7 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.8
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25
Exchange rate QAR/USD, ave 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Exchange rate QAR/USD, eop 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64 3.64
Budget balance, QARbn 105.2 92.3 -11.1 -49.9 -27.3 -18.8 -19.7
Budget balance, % of GDP 14.5 12.3 -1.9 -9.0 -4.2 -2.6 -2.5
Goods and services exports, USDbn 144.5 140.4 92.3 72.4 87.8 99.5 108.2
Goods and services imports, USDbn 58.9 64.0 59.3 63.4 60.7 66.2 72.7
Current account balance, USDbn 60.4 49.6 13.7 -8.3 -1.6 2.0 4.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 30.4 24.1 8.4 -5.5 -0.9 1.0 2.0
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 41.7 42.6 37.2 34.0 33.2 36.5 39.4
Import cover, months 15.9 16.4 15.7 12.8 15.0 14.9 14.4
Total external debt stock, USDbn 159.3 163.3 174.5 199.2 231.1 257.1 280.2
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 80.2 79.2 106.0 130.7 130.7 130.7 130.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,057.0 2,044.4 2,052.8 2,055.8 2,018.3 2,005.3 1,992.4
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 1,920.1 1,885.9 1,847.8 1,836.0 1,793.0 1,772.5 1,751.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 177.6 174.1 180.9 182.8 182.2 184.2 185.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 52.1 47.1 52.4 52.5 53.5 58.3 58.8