Political Risk Analysis - Stability Persists, But Social Challenges, Terrorism Risks Ahead - MAR 2017
BMI View: Terrorism and social instability risks are on the rise in Jordan, amid the ongoing crisis in neighbouring Syria, the resultant refugee influx, and a small but growing domestic presence of Islamist militants. Nevertheless, Jordan will remain among the most politically stable countries in the MENA region over the coming years.
Security and social instability risks are growing in Jordan, amid the ongoing civil war in neighbouring Syria, the resultant refugee influx, and an increasing domestic presence of Islamic State (IS)-linked militant cells. While we expect attacks to be sporadic over the coming years, any large-scale strike would negatively impact the economically important tourism sector and deter some foreign investors. Meanwhile, though high levels of international aid enable Amman to absorb much of the economic costs associated with the presence of Syrian refugees, the crisis presents significant social challenges.
Islamist Terrorist Threat Growing
|Among The Most Politically Stable Countries In MENA|
|Jordan & MENA Average - Short-Term Political Risk Index Scores (Out Of 100)|
|Note: Lower score = higher risk. Source: BMI|